July 3 Predictions: The Round of 32 Signs Off With Three Ties
Available in USEvery good tournament has a night that closes a chapter, and this is ours. When Colombia and Ghana finish under the lights at Arrowhead late tonight, the Round of 32 will be complete and the bracket for the last 16 will be locked. Before that, two very different stories play out: Egypt trying to reach a knockout milestone their football has never touched, and the holders Argentina meeting the smallest nation ever to make a men’s World Cup knockout stage. Three matches, three moods — here are our picks. For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 predictions hub sets the scene.
- Australia vs Egypt (2:00 pm ET, Arlington): Egypt are the favourites to advance but priced only 2.50 to win in 90 minutes — a high draw chance at 2.90.
- Argentina vs Cape Verde (6:00 pm ET, Miami): the holders are heavy 1.18 favourites; debutants Cape Verde are 28.00 to win in 90.
- Colombia vs Ghana (9:30 pm ET, Kansas City): Colombia are 1.47 favourites; the winner meets Switzerland in the last 16.
- All odds are decimal, as of July 3, 2026, and are 90-minute knockout lines — a level tie goes to extra time and penalties.
- Our featured value pick: the Australia vs Egypt draw at 2.90 after 90 minutes.
Australia vs Egypt: A Cagey Opener in Arlington
The day starts at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where the retractable roof and air conditioning will likely spare both teams the worst of a Texas heat index nudging 100°F. On the pitch, expect caution. Egypt reached the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in their history by finishing second in Group G, and they chase a first-ever knockout win here. Australia, second in Group D, failed to score in their last two group games and bring the lowest expected-goals output of any side that finished in a group’s top two.
The market frames it neatly: Egypt are 2.50 to win in 90 minutes, Australia 3.70, and the draw a short 2.90 — as of July 3, 2026. Opta’s model gives Egypt a 38.6% win chance to Australia’s 30.4%, and makes Egypt 54% to advance overall. The wrinkle is Mohamed Salah: cleared to play after a hamstring problem, but with his coach pointedly refusing to commit him to the starting XI. Team director Ibrahim Hassan captured Egypt’s mood: "we dream of continuing the journey and reaching the furthest point possible in the tournament, and we do not set a ceiling for our ambitions."
Pick: With two low-scoring, cagey sides and a genuinely open contest, the draw at 2.90 is the value angle on the day — a level game after 90 minutes is very much in play, and it is our featured pick. If you prefer a side, Egypt to advance is the sounder long-term read than backing either to win inside 90.
Argentina vs Cape Verde: Holders Meet History’s Underdogs
At Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the holders are as short as knockout football gets. Argentina are 1.18 to win in 90 minutes, the draw a distant 9.00 and Cape Verde 28.00 — as of July 3, 2026. Lionel Messi has scored six of Argentina’s eight goals at this tournament and co-leads the scoring chart; Argentina have won ten straight and are yet to concede in North America.
And yet the story is all Cape Verde. A nation of roughly 525,000 people, they are the smallest country ever to reach a men’s World Cup knockout stage, the first side to advance from a group without a win since Chile in 1998, and the first debutant in the knockouts since Slovakia in 2010. Their 40-year-old goalkeeper, Josimar "Vozinha," made seven saves in a goalless draw with Spain. Miami’s evening forecast — a heat index around 105°F with a 50% chance of storms — could yet play a part.
Pick: There is no value in 1.18, and betting against Messi in this mood is asking for trouble. If you want an angle, Argentina to win to nil fits a side that has not conceded here — but treat Cape Verde’s resilience with respect; they have made a habit of frustrating better teams.
Colombia vs Ghana: Control Against Resistance
The night ends at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, and the winner earns a Round of 16 date with Switzerland. Colombia won Group K with seven points and just one goal conceded — including a goalless draw with Portugal — and arrive in fine form. Ghana squeezed through as one of the best third-placed sides. The lines read Colombia 1.47, the draw 4.60 and Ghana 9.20, as of July 3, 2026, with Opta making Colombia 64.8% likely to win to Ghana’s 13.8%.
Colombia’s numbers in the group stage were commanding — over six expected goals and nearly 60% possession — while right-back Daniel Muñoz has been their unlikely top scorer with two. Ghana will need winger Antoine Semenyo, expected to shake off an ankle knock, to carry the counterattacks. Expect Colombian control against Ghanaian resistance.
Pick: Colombia should have too much, but 1.47 offers thin value on its own. Colombia to win and both teams not to score is closer to the true shape of the game given their defensive record. Compare prices across regulated books in your province — Boomerang Bet, LamaBet and BillyBets among them — before you commit.
The Bigger Picture
Once tonight is done, the last-16 bracket is set and the tournament shifts gears. For where every surviving side lands — and Canada’s own route — see our Round of 16 preview, and revisit last night’s drama in our July 2 results recap.
