Quarter-Finals Preview: France Already In, Three Spots Left, and an Outright Board in Motion
Updated July 2026
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A World Cup quarter-final has a different feel from every round that comes before it. The crowds thin out a little, the kits stop being surprises, and the names on the team sheet start to feel like the names you will remember in twenty years. We are at that point now. One semi-finalist is decided: France, after Thursday’s 2-0 win over Morocco at Gillette Stadium. Three more will be settled in the next 48 hours — Spain, Norway or England, and Argentina or Switzerland — and then the bracket collapses into the semis. This is the preview: every tie, every number, every storyline worth knowing before the whistle goes.
The format is simple. Two sides play, one side goes through. There is no aggregate, no away-goals, no margin for error. Below is the full picture: the schedule, the 1X2 lines (single-book, screen-verified on the morning of 10 July), the outright market after the QF1 result, the suspension list that will shape who plays (and who sits) in the semi-finals, and the venues you will be watching on. For a deeper read on QF2, see our Spain vs Belgium quarter-final prediction. For today’s picks across all three ties, our July 10–11 quarter-final predictions walks through the value angles.
Quarter-finals
| QF | Match | Date (ET) | Venue | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QF1 | France 2-0 Morocco | Thu 9 Jul | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA | PLAYED — France to SF1 |
| QF2 | Spain vs Belgium | Fri 10 Jul, 15:00 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood/LA | UPCOMING |
| QF3 | Norway vs England | Sat 11 Jul, 17:00 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL | UPCOMING |
| QF4 | Argentina vs Switzerland | Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO | UPCOMING |
Semi-finals (set)
| SF | Match | Date (ET) | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF1 | France vs winner(ESP/BEL) | Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 | AT&T Stadium, Dallas TX |
| SF2 | winner(NOR/ENG) vs winner(ARG/SUI) | Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA |
Through to SF: France (1) · Live in QFs: Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina, Switzerland (6)
The Quarter-Finals in Brief
QF1 — France 2-0 Morocco (Thu 9 Jul, Foxborough). Mbappé 60′, Dembélé 66′. Mbappé also missed a first-half penalty. France through to a third straight World Cup semi-final — the first side to manage that since Brazil 1998/2002/2006. The 9 July box score read 21 shots to 4 and roughly 3.0 xG to 0.1. (FIFA; ESPN; CNN; NBC News; FOX Sports; Al Jazeera; Yahoo, 9 July 2026.)
QF2 — Spain vs Belgium (Fri 10 Jul, 15:00 ET / 12:00 PT, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood/LA). Spain favourites at 1.61 (DraftKings via SI, 10 July ~09:00 ET). The headline: Spain have conceded zero goals all tournament — 5 clean sheets in 5 games, 9 goals scored — and Unai Simón broke Walter Zenga’s 1990 record for World Cup minutes without conceding (past 517). Belgium have conceded in both knockout games; Amadou Onana is out for the tournament (ACL). Nico Williams is a doubt for Spain; Yeremy Pino is available. Coverage on TSN.
QF3 — Norway vs England (Sat 11 Jul, 17:00 ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL). England favourites at 1.94, Norway 3.80, draw 3.50 (bet365 via Squawka, 10 July ~09:00 ET). Norway’s first-ever World Cup quarter-final; they stunned Brazil 2-1 in the R16 (Haaland brace). England missing Quansah (suspended, 2-match ban — extended through the SF by FIFA) and likely Reece James (hamstring). Heat watch: ~92–94°F with heat index up to ~106°F and a 20% PM storm chance.
QF4 — Argentina vs Switzerland (Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 ET / 20:00 CT, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO). Argentina favourites at 1.80, Switzerland 6.00, draw 3.50 (fractional via Squawka, 10 July ~09:00 ET). Argentina chasing back-to-back World Cup wins — not done since Brazil 1958/1962. Switzerland into their first QF since 1954; both knockout wins came with no goals conceded in regulation. Montiel likely rested for Argentina to avoid an SF booking. Weather: ~75–80°F at kickoff, mostly clear, light east wind.
The Outright Board After QF1
Outright markets are the first place a knockout result shows up, and Thursday night was no different. France firmed from ~+180 (2.80) to a clear outright favourite at 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80 across books) as of 18:31 ET on 9 July (Kalshi via Covers). That is the shortest outright price any team has held since the start of the knockout stage. Behind them the order is contested:
| Selection | Best price | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Spain | 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Argentina | 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| England | 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Norway | 15.89 (range 15.89–16.0) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Belgium | 47.62 (range 31.0–47.62) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Switzerland | 52.63 (range 31.0–52.63) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
Note on the 2nd-favourite ordering: Kalshi (via Covers, 9 July) has Argentina ahead of Spain (5.43 vs 5.78). FanDuel (8 July) and ESPN have Spain ahead (+360/+370 vs ARG +390). The disagreement is recorded here, not silently resolved. For the full live picture, our World Cup 2026 odds page is updated as lines move.
Golden Boot Going Into the Quarter-Finals
After Mbappé’s 8th of the tournament on Thursday — which pulled him level with Messi on 8 — the Golden Boot is the closest two-horse race it has been all tournament. Books disagree on the favourite:
| Player | Country | Goals | Best price | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | ARG | 8 | 2.20 (range 2.20–2.75) | FanDuel / FOX | 2026-07-09 18:02 |
| Kylian Mbappé | FRA | 8 | 1.95 (range 1.95–2.35) | FOX / Covers | 2026-07-09 18:02 |
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 7 | 8.50 | FanDuel (via FOX) | 2026-07-09 18:02 |
| Harry Kane | ENG | 6 | 10.0 | FanDuel (via FOX) | 2026-07-09 18:02 |
FOX/Covers make Mbappé favourite at 1.95 (−105); FanDuel still has Messi favourite at 2.20 (+120) and Mbappé at 2.35. Both are recorded. For the deeper chase — Mbappé now sits at 20 career World Cup goals, one behind Messi’s all-time record of 21 — see our Mbappé one-goal-from-Messi-all-time-record feature. For the Golden Boot table as a live tracker, our Golden Boot race page is updated after each matchday.
::: key-takeaways
- France through to SF1 after 2-0 over Morocco on 9 July; 3 QF spots to be settled by Saturday night.
- Spain favourites to join them (1.61 vs Belgium, QF2 today, 15:00 ET, SoFi Stadium, TSN).
- England 1.94 favourites vs Norway (QF3, Sat 11 Jul, 17:00 ET, Hard Rock Stadium) — Norway’s first-ever QF.
- Argentina 1.80 favourites vs Switzerland (QF4, Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 ET, Arrowhead Stadium) — holders chasing back-to-back.
- Outright: France 2.46 clear favourite (Kalshi via Covers, 9 July 18:31 ET).
- Golden Boot: Messi & Mbappé level on 8 (FOX/Covers: Mbappé 1.95; FanDuel: Messi 2.20). Haaland 7, Kane 6.
- SF1 (France vs winner(ESP/BEL), 14 Jul, AT&T Stadium Dallas); SF2 (winner(NOR/ENG) vs winner(ARG/SUI), 15 Jul, Mercedes-Benz Atlanta).
Suspension Watch: Who Risks an SF Ban
The single biggest selection story of the weekend is the suspension list. A yellow carried into a QF + a QF booking = SF ban; a QF red card = a minimum one-match ban. The live SF-ban-risk list going into Friday:
- Spain: Ferran Torres (one booking from an SF ban)
- Belgium: Brandon Mechele (one booking from an SF ban)
- Norway: Antonio Nusa (one booking from an SF ban)
- England: Marc Guéhi, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Lewis O’Reilly (each one booking from an SF ban) — Bellingham and O’Reilly are the new names vs 9 July
- Argentina: Gonzalo Montiel (one booking from an SF ban — likely to be rested)
- Switzerland: Granit Xhaka, Denis Zakaria, Silvan Muheim (each one booking from an SF ban)
Outright: Jarell Quansah (England) is suspended for the QF AND the SF after FIFA extended his straight-red ban from one match to two (Yahoo; ESPN; Al Jazeera, 9 July). He will not play again at this tournament even if England reach the final. Belgium’s Amadou Onana is out of the tournament with an ACL injury; Spain’s Nico Williams is a doubt (adductor); Norway’s Marcus Holmgren Pedersen is a doubt (sickness, trending up); Switzerland’s Johan Manzambi is a doubt (knee, missed the R16); Jaquez and Aebischer are both reported as doubts by a single source only and remain to be confirmed.
Weather and Venues
NWS forecasts retrieved the morning of 10 July ET:
- QF2 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood/LA — fixed roof shelters the field, so wind and sun are largely a non-factor. ~78–81°F outside, cloudy AM clearing to mostly sunny; precip ~0%; SSE→SW 5–10 mph. Heat Advisory in effect.
- QF3 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL — open field, ~92–94°F with heat index up to ~106°F; mostly sunny; ~20% PM shower/storm chance; SE 5–9 mph. The afternoon-evening kickoff puts the hottest hour behind the game.
- QF4 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO — open-air, ~75–80°F at kickoff (day high ~87°F); mostly cloudy clearing to mostly clear; ~30% storm chance mainly early afternoon, minimal by kickoff; light east wind ~5–6 mph. Mild/calm for the evening slot.
What It Means for Canadian Viewers
Every match of the 2026 World Cup is broadcast in Canada on TSN and CTV (with French-language coverage on RDS). Quarter-final weekend begins with Spain–Belgium today (TSN1/3/4/5, 15:00 ET), continues with Norway–England tomorrow (TSN1/3/4/CTV, 17:00 ET), and closes with Argentina–Switzerland tomorrow (TSN1/3/4/5/CTV, 21:00 ET). All three are on TSN’s live TV channels and the TSN+ streaming platform, with full live coverage from 30 minutes before kickoff.
Where the Tournament Goes Next
Once the three ties are settled on Saturday night, the semi-final feed is locked. SF1: France vs winner(ESP/BEL), Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 ET, AT&T Stadium Dallas. SF2: winner(NOR/ENG) vs winner(ARG/SUI), Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta. The final is on Sunday, 19 July at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ. For the full World Cup 2026 schedule, see our World Cup 2026 bracket page; for live outrights, the World Cup 2026 odds hub.
Our read: The shape of the weekend is three favourites, three different challenges. Spain’s challenge is to keep their defensive record clean against a Belgian team that has not stopped scoring. England’s challenge is to plug a right-back gap against a Norwegian side that lives on transition. Argentina’s challenge is to convert favourites-on-paper into favourites-on-pitch against a Switzerland team that has not conceded in regulation across two knockout rounds. France are already through, and the outright market has noticed. For the picks, our July 10–11 quarter-final predictions page walks through all three ties; for the deeper match-up read on QF2, our Spain vs Belgium prediction goes long on the team news, the lineups, and the clean-sheet streak.
The match ball, the centre spot, the last wait — three quarter-finals in 48 hours, three spots in Dallas and Atlanta.::: faq
When is Spain vs Belgium?
Friday, 10 July, 15:00 ET (12:00 PT) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood/Los Angeles. The match is on TSN in Canada. Spain are favourites at 1.61 (DraftKings via SI, 10 July ~09:00 ET).
When is Norway vs England and Argentina vs Switzerland?
Both on Saturday, 11 July. Norway vs England kicks off at 17:00 ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens FL (England 1.94, Norway 3.80, draw 3.50 on bet365 via Squawka). Argentina vs Switzerland kicks off at 21:00 ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City MO (Argentina 1.80, Switzerland 6.00, draw 3.50).
Who has already qualified for the semi-finals?
France, after the 2-0 win over Morocco at Gillette Stadium on 9 July. Mbappé scored his 8th of the tournament (60′) and Dembélé added the second (66′). France will play the winner of Spain vs Belgium in SF1 in Dallas on Tuesday, 14 July.
What are the outright odds to win the 2026 World Cup?
France 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80), Spain 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78), Argentina 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43), England 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41), Norway 15.89, Belgium 47.62, Switzerland 52.63. All prices from Kalshi via Covers, 9 July 18:31 ET. Note: FanDuel/ESPN price Spain ahead of Argentina, while Kalshi prices Argentina ahead of Spain.
